9 percent over the same Canada Goose online period in 2012

China iron ore imports as good they get

canada goose clearance Clyde Russell is a Reuters market Canada Goose Jackets analyst. The views Canada Goose Coats On Sale expressed are his own. canada goose clearance

By Clyde Russell

canada goose deals LAUNCESTON, Canada Goose sale Australia, Dec 9 buy canada goose jacket (Reuters) China record imports of iron ore in November may be as good as they get for a while as a series of factors https://www.canadagooseoutletstore.co.uk points to uk canada goose a moderation in the next few months. canada goose deals

Imports surged 18.3 percent from a year earlier to reach 77.84 million Canada Goose Online tonnes in November, surpassing the prior record uk canada goose outlet of 74.58 million tonnes in September.

Canada Goose online For the year to date, imports stand at 746.1 million tonnes, up 10.9 percent over the same Canada Goose online period in 2012, making iron ore one of the most imported among China purchases of canada goose store major commodities. Canada Goose online

cheap Canada Goose Crude oil canadian goose jacket imports are up only 3.2 percent in the first 11 months canada goose uk shop of 2013, soybeans have gained 6.6 percent and unwrought copper is down by 4.8 percent. cheap Canada Goose

Canada Goose Jackets But iron ore imports may show more moderate growth in coming Canada Goose Outlet months amid the winter lull in demand for steel, higher spot prices, rising freight rates and a steepening in the backwardation of the swaps curve. Canada Goose Jackets

Iron ore imports show some seasonality, usually peaking between November and January, before tailing canada goose uk black friday off in the first quarter.

canada goose While this doesn preclude the possibility cheap Canada Goose of a gain in imports in December, this year may be similar to the winter of 2011 12 when imports peaked in November, rather than 2012 13 when they topped out in December, canada goose coats on sale or 2010 11 canada goose coats when January was the high. canada goose

Canada Goose Parka The reason imports of the steelmaking ingredient may not peak in December or January is that rising prices have canada goose black friday sale in the past acted as a dampener on demand. canadagooseoutletstore 6, near the $139.70 on Dec. 4, which was the highest price in almost four months. Canada Goose Parka

buy canada goose jacket The gains in both prices and volumes have been driven in recent months by a re stocking in inventories in China, and an improving outlook for steel demand amid signs of stronger infrastructure and other construction spending. buy canada goose jacket

However, inventories of iron ore at Chinese ports have continued to rise, reaching 87.4 million tonnes in the week to Dec. 1, according to data from Mysteel, an industry information service.

This is up from just under 80 million tonnes in mid November and traders report that mills have been building inventories in recent weeks.

canada goose coats But once iron ore stocks reach comfortable levels, and at the current level of more than a month imports they are probably there, it likely mills will buy only as much as they consume. canada goose coats

buy canada goose jacket cheap SPOT PRICES GAINING Rising spot prices have in the past also seen the rate of import demand growth slow, and iron ore has gained Canada Goose Parka more than 6 percent in the past six weeks. buy canada goose jacket cheap

Canada Goose Outlet While this isn a sharp enough increase to spark demand destruction, it likely to give buyers pause for thought, especially with freight rates soaring in recent weeks. Canada Goose Outlet

canadian goose jacket The Baltic Dry Index had jumped 46.7 percent since hitting a two month low of 1,483 on Nov. 22. canadian goose jacket

canada goose coats on sale The rising cost of shipping, coupled with higher spot prices, will reduce the appeal of importing iron ore, and also serve to make domestic supplies more attractive. canada goose coats on sale

canada goose clearance sale However, prices may not have much further to rise in the short term as the Singapore iron ore swaps curve is canada goose factory sale pointing to canada goose clearance an easing, with the backwardation increasing in recent weeks. canada goose clearance sale

So far this year, an increase in backwardation has been canada goose uk outlet followed by a decrease in prices, while a narrowing has resulted in gains.

In February this year, just as iron ore reached its high for the year of $158.90 a tonne, the front month swap was 12.7 percent higher than the six month.

Prices then slumped to $110.40 a tonne by the end of May, and by the start of June the front month canada goose clearance sale swap was just 1.9 percent above the six month. At that time the curve went into contango from eighth to tenth months.

From the low at the end of May, prices have climbed to current levels, but the backwardation has recently steepened, indicating prices may decline in the next few weeks.

Canada Goose sale In morning trade on Dec. 9 the front month swap canada goose was at $137.83 a tonne, a premium of 8.7 percent to the six month, while a month ago the cheap canada goose uk premium was 8.3 percent and three months ago it was 6.6 percent. Canada Goose sale

canada goose black friday sale So while current high prices and freight rates may curb some import appetite, this may only be temporary as iron ore demand is expected to continue its strong growth in 2014. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose store Imports may rise to 850 million tonnes in 2014, a gain of 6.3 percent over 2013 forecast 800 million, the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, an industry group that provides consultancy buy canada goose jacket cheap for government policies, said on Dec. 6. (Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman) canada goose store.

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